It was interesting, to say the least. Props to Jennifer Helmer, who is a networkering guru. Her social skills always amaze me; she manages to be the "bestie" of nearly everyone in the room. And her daughter is ridiculously cute. Ok, enough social commentary.
Several times throughout the event, a presentation was given on Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts. Personally, I think the greatest thing the GOP can learn from Brown's win is: it is essential to become a Big Tent party again. And it is essential to run candidates that represent the electorate. I think these concepts are critical to the GOP's viability in Washtenaw County.
Right now, it is safe to say that the GOP is on life-support in this county. As we know, Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti are Democratic strongholds, but I don't believe this explains the complete lack of Republican representation in these areas. I don't have any grand delusions that there will be a GOP majority in either area, but I do believe that we can see some GOP representation.
In order for this to happen, I believe that two things need to happen: 1) Candidates must be representative of the electorate (ie moderate.) 2) The county party must re-focus on local issues and push state and national issues to the back-burner.
More thoughts on #2 at a later date.
2.01.2010
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I think candidates need to fit the district.
ReplyDeleteThe old 8th district which was competitive had part of Washtenaw County before the 2002 redistricting.
The last social liberal that ran for congress lost the district 58-38, and only got 53% in the county despite an NRA endorsement (a big deal in these parts). Even McCain got 56% in a bad year, and Bush got 63% here in 2004.
What's interesting is that the social liberal candidate lost bad in her portion of Washtenaw County in 98. Mike Rogers, who is much more conservative, won his part of the county, only losing Scio Twp (which is the real social liberal part of the district). Rogers took the rest, even Sylvan Twp (when it had Chelsea), Saline, normally 50/50 Northfield Twp (Whitmore Lake, more populist), and most surprising to me, his part of Pittsfield Twp. The social liberal lost all of it. I think the reason is that the social liberals were going to vote for then incumbent Debbie Stabenow anyway, and the conservatives skipped the race.
I think it takes a balancing act. With the 52nd district, someone has to win big in rural areas, get the populists in Northfield, and somehow not lose too badly in Scio Twp, Ann Arbor Twp, and NE Ann Arbor (which is going to be even harder with Ave Maria Law now in Florida and replaced by Cooley).
Impossible? No. Gene DeRossett did it. It's a combination of getting enough issues for support without alienating others or being weak.
That in a different way, goes to the big tent, but it needs to be big enough without losing principles. Scott Brown did it in Massachusetts (partly thanks to a Communist as an opponent). Someone like Lindsay Graham would be double-flanked because he's a panderer and weak. No respect.
I disagree that the GOP is on life support in Washtenaw County. It may have missed out on opportunities east of US-23 in years past, but the party's recent efforts to rally votes against the WISD millage seem to have started a movement in a new direction. Add in the influence of "tea party" independents, and we have something very good happening in the county and state.
ReplyDeleteWe also have a growing and energized collection of fiscally conservative folks here in the 54th District (Augusta Twp., Ypsilanti city/twp., Superior and Salem Twps.) that are motivated to make a change. As the republican candidate for the 54th district, I was thrilled with the number of people (especially "tea party" independents) from the east side of the county that I met during the Fix Michigan GOP rally.
I've seen the numbers and firmly believe that a fiscally conservative candidate focused on reining in reckless state spending and restoring a prosperous and productive business climate in Michigan will do well here in 2010. I'm also glad that the county party has identified the 54th as one of its three high priority state rep seats for this election cycle.
Republican Michigander- At Mr. DeRossett's request, I met with him a couple of months ago. He said they thought he wouldn't have a chance because of re-districting which resulted in him losing over half of his previous electorate, which makes his win even more impressive. I was most impressed by his attitude. He truly believes in public service, and is incredibly sincere about it. With so many "politicians" out there, it was so refreshing to meet someone who was motivated only by his desire to give back to his community.
ReplyDeleteMr. Nanney- I'm sorry that we didn't get a chance to meet at the rally this weekend. I, too, was impressed by the positive atmosphere at the rally. I was too vague I suppose by referring to the county as a whole, when in truth I mostly was thinking of Ann Arbor (and it's outlying twps) and Ypsilanti. For example, there is no Republican candidate for the 53rd. I understand the party needs to prioritize, especially in this economic climate where money is especially tight. But, that being said, I would love to see the County party focus more on localizing (is that a word?) their message and address city and twp issues.